Tuesday, April 27, 2010

Up we go into seasonal peak

Hi there, and welcome back to CRI's S&P 500 blog.



There is little new to report this week as we continue to work our way higher into the typical seasonal peak of April-May-June. As the cliche goes, 'Sell in May, and walk away' suggests, I shall be looking to exit the market in earnest once the seasonal rally has exhausted itself. That hasn't happened yet and we currently are no-where near any sell signals so for the time being I am long and enjoying the ride. I shall re-examine our position should either the 104.15 level be breached or our upside target window of 125 to 126 be taken out.

From a 'traders' perspective, recent suggestions to readers (AOS-V and SSW-NYSE) have done extremely well and those that did participate are encouraged to take profits when CRI does.

Since the 13 EMA is still very comfortably above the 30 SMA, 'investors' should be long and stay long. Once this relationship changes, 'investors' will have a signal to act.

That's all for this week,
Brian Beamish FCSI
The Canadian Rational Investor
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
the-rational-investor.com

Tuesday, April 20, 2010

The seasonal march higher continues

Hi there, and welcome back to CRI's S&P 500 blog.



Sometimes this job can be a little boring! Indeed, the market has been pointing higher now for 11 weeks and the same upside targets remain. I am still looking for a serious test of the Aug. 2008 highs in and around the 126.24 area. Considering the seasonal nature of the stock market, there really is no reason for stocks to break down in the middle of April. So on goes the march higher!

As has been stated time and time again, there is an old market adage that says, 'Sell in May and walk away'. With this in mind, as a trader, I shall remain long into that seasonal peak unless the 104.15 level is broken (which I find highly unlikely). Investors, of course were given the 'buy' signal last May (when the 13 EMA crossed back above the 30 SMA) and until that changes, investors ought to just sit tight and enjoy the bull run.


That's all for this week,
Brian Beamish FCSI
The Canadian Rational Investor
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
the-rational-investor.com

Tuesday, April 13, 2010

Workin our way up to the top

Hi there, and welcome back to CRI's S&P 500 blog.



Little new to report in this week's Blog entry. The S&P 500 stock index (as measured by the exchange traded fund: SPY) has been steadily moving higher over the past ten weeks. We were issued a new 'trader' buy signal when the market moved above the high of 114.67 on the week of March 8th. 'Investors' were issued a buy signal the first week of May, 2009 which is now almost one year ago (when the 13 EMA crossed back above the 30 SMA).

Upside targets currently are the trading range breakout target of 125.19 (where one takes the old trading range and adds it to the top on a breakout - in this case 114.67 - 104.15 = 10.52 + 114.67 = 125.19) and the highs from August, 2008 at 126.24.

Once these targets are hit I would be very leery about putting any new positions on until a healthy correction/consolidation takes place. Coincidentally, we are just about one month away from our seasonality-peak window for stocks (ie. sell in May and walk away). The fact that these two points are coming together so neatly ought to raise suspicions about how much further this market can go once the seasonal window closes.

That's all for this week,
Brian Beamish FCSI
The Canadian Rational Investor
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
the-rational-investor.com

Tuesday, April 6, 2010

Same old, same old

Hi there, and welcome back to CRI's S&P 500 blog.



At the risk of sounding redundant, as expected - the market has been moving steadily higher since CRI's last post. While we remain within the seasonally good time of year for the market, I expect little in the way of corrections, and (for those traders out there) any pullbacks ought to be considered buying opportunities. Our 'investor signal' has been bullish since last May and I would expect that condition to continue for a little while yet. As for short term targets, I do believe there will be a fair amount of resistance at or near the 126 area. Until this target area has been hit or we enter the month of May, enjoy the ride.

On a side, while the market continues to point bullishly, I am more than happy to be long stocks that look like they could appreciate. Of particular note, AOS-V has been very kind to CRI of late. Refer to other posts for more on that but readers here ought to be aware of the various services CRI operates and how you may take advantage of this great information...

Hopefully, it will get you to the point where you might want to subscribe.....hint....hint....hint.... :)

That's all for this week,
Brian Beamish FCSI
The Canadian Rational Investor
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
the-rational-investor.com