Tuesday, December 2, 2008

Consolidating a new lower trading range

Hi there, and welcome back to RI's S&P 500 blog.



What more can be said that hasn't already. Short term traders are short from 83.58 with stops above recent highs at or just above 90.13. Those short should be looking for the ultimate selloff down to the bear flag target at or near 54.48.

Medium to long term investors have no business even looking at the stock market right now. Yes a seasonal bottom should be coming in but my fear is that will not be realized until well into the new year.

My short term expectations are for a test of the recent lows as we head into the December options expiry (Dec 19th) after that we ought to see a typical 'santa claus' rally into the X-mass/New Year's holiday period. Because New years falls on a Wed. this year. I wouldn't expect the selling to begin in earnest again until the second week of January.


That's all for this week,
Brian Beamish FCSI
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
the-rational-investor.com

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